Olaf Scholz Wins First TV Debate Ahead of Germany’s 2025 Elections

As Germany’s 2025 Bundestag elections approach, the first televised debate between Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU) has set the stage for a heated contest.

Two separate post-debate surveys—one by ARD and another by ZDF—indicate that Scholz narrowly edged out Merz. While 56% of ARD viewers saw Scholz as the winner compared to 14% for Merz, a more balanced ZDF poll showed 37% favoring Scholz and 34% siding with Merz.

Key Issues: Immigration and Economic Policy

The debate, held on Germany’s public broadcaster ARD, focused primarily on migration policies and economic strategies, areas where both candidates sought to appeal to voters.

Scholz’s Tough Stance on Immigration

Scholz positioned himself as a strong leader on asylum policy, declaring that Germany has never had tougher immigration laws than under his administration. He reassured voters that the number of asylum seekers is already decreasing, signaling a stricter stance on migration control.

Merz: The Conservative Statesman

Merz, in contrast, adopted what analysts called a «stateman-like approach,» emphasizing the CDU’s commitment to tighter border controls and economic stability. However, he also hinted at potential cooperation with the SPD, leading some commentators to speculate about future coalition negotiations.

Media Reactions: A Divided Verdict

German media outlets offered mixed assessments of the debate’s outcome.

• Der Spiegel described the exchange as a «GroKo vibe» (Grand Coalition atmosphere), suggesting that both leaders left room for future collaboration despite differences.
• FAZ went further, calling the debate «more of a negotiation than a duel,» implying that Merz may already be eyeing an SPD partnership.
• Süddeutsche Zeitung gave Scholz a slight advantage, highlighting his firm but approachable demeanor, despite some sharp attacks on Merz.
• Springer-owned outlets BILD and WELT, however, declared Merz the winner, criticizing Scholz for appearing aggressive and dismissive.
• Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, criticized both candidates on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Merz lacked economic clarity and was too accommodating toward the Greens.

Public Perception and Polling Trends

Despite Scholz’s apparent debate win, current election polling still places his SPD far behind the CDU/CSU.

Latest Polls (February 2025)

• CDU/CSU: 29%–34% (leading)
• AfD: 15%–18%
• SPD: 15%–18% (third place)

This significant polling gap suggests that while Scholz may have dominated the debate, it remains uncertain whether his performance will translate into electoral gains.

A Missing Green Party Voice

One major criticism of the debate was the absence of Green Party candidate Robert Habeck, leading some analysts to label the event «a battle of the past» rather than a reflection of Germany’s evolving political landscape.

Climate policy, a key issue for Green Party voters, was not discussed, leaving a glaring gap in the debate’s scope.

What’s Next in the Campaign?

With less than two weeks before Germany’s Bundestag elections on February 23, both candidates must:

• Appeal to undecided voters, particularly moderates concerned about economic and security issues.
• Solidify their party bases, ensuring strong turnout.
• Prepare for additional debates and campaign events, where key policies will be further scrutinized.

While Scholz emerged as the debate winner, the real battle is still unfolding at the polls. With CDU/CSU maintaining a strong lead, the SPD will need more than just debate victories to close the gap before election day. Whether Scholz’s aggressive approach or Merz’s measured tone will ultimately sway voters remains to be seen.