Ecuador’s presidential election has left the country without a clear winner, pushing the top two candidates—incumbent Daniel Noboa and Luisa González—into a runoff election on April 13, 2025.
According to the National Electoral Council (CNE), with more than 90% of votes counted, Noboa secured just over 44%, while González followed closely with 43%. Neither candidate reached the required 50% threshold or the 40% mark with a 10-point lead, forcing a second round.
The coming weeks will be crucial as both candidates adjust their strategies to win over undecided voters, particularly those who backed third-party candidates, who together amassed over 7% of the vote.
Key Issues Shaping the Election
Ecuador’s political landscape is highly polarized, with security concerns, economic instability, and corruption scandals playing a major role in voter decisions.
1. Security and Crime: Noboa’s Military Strategy
One of Noboa’s signature policies has been a military crackdown on organized crime, deploying armed forces to combat gang violence. His administration also introduced legal reforms to increase police authority and strengthen border security.
While supporters view this as a necessary step in restoring public safety, critics argue that military intervention has led to human rights concerns, including reports of forced disappearances and extrajudicial actions.
The murder of four children in Guayaquil by a military patrol became a national controversy, with Noboa facing criticism for not immediately addressing the tragedy.
2. Economic Uncertainty and Blackouts
Noboa’s government faced severe backlash over nationwide power outages, lasting up to 14 hours daily, due to water shortages and a weak energy infrastructure.
His administration secured new IMF funding, lowered Ecuador’s risk rating, and promoted foreign investment, but opposition figures argue that these economic policies have yet to translate into tangible benefits for ordinary citizens.
González has focused her campaign on expanding social programs, increasing public spending, and reversing Noboa’s economic liberalization policies. However, her ties to Rafael Correa—whose administration was plagued by corruption scandals and economic mismanagement—remain a key concern among voters.
3. Corruption and the Legacy of Correa
González’s campaign is closely linked to former president Rafael Correa, who remains a highly influential yet controversial figure in Ecuadorian politics.
- Supporters see González as the continuation of Correa’s social policies, which increased welfare programs and infrastructure investment.
- Opponents fear a return to corruption and authoritarian governance, citing past scandals such as:
- The Odebrecht bribery case, where Ecuadorian officials accepted kickbacks in exchange for government contracts.
- The 2012-2016 “Bribes” case, which led to Correa’s conviction for corruption while he was in exile in Belgium.
González has tried to distance herself from these controversies, but her association with Correa remains a double-edged sword.
What Happens Next?
With one month left until the final vote, Ecuadorians will be closely watching policy debates, alliances, and campaign developments.
- Noboa must solidify his image as a strong, security-focused leader while addressing economic concerns.
- González must broaden her appeal beyond Correa’s loyalists and convince voters that she represents progress without corruption.
The outcome of this election will determine Ecuador’s political direction, shaping its security policies, economic strategy, and international relations for years to come.
Who will emerge victorious on April 13, 2025? The battle for Ecuador’s presidency is far from over.
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