A Policy Shift That Could Change the Avocado Industry Forever
Every year, millions of Americans enjoy guacamole during the Super Bowl, with most avocados coming from Michoacán, Mexico. However, this tradition might be in jeopardy. A new policy shift under former President Donald Trump could effectively ban avocado imports from regions linked to organized crime.
The change stems from a controversial executive order reclassifying Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. If fully enforced, this policy could disrupt the multi-billion-dollar avocado industry, leaving Americans without their beloved Super Bowl guacamole.
Trump’s New Policy: Cartels as Terrorist Organizations
On February 3, 2025, a 14-day deadline expired for the U.S. State Department to designate which criminal organizations would be officially labeled as terrorist groups. Though the final list remains unpublished, reports suggest that the Sinaloa Cartel and Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) are primary targets.
The significance? Once a group is labeled a terrorist organization, U.S. law permits:
Economic sanctions on individuals and businesses linked to them
Asset freezes for any financial transactions connected to these groups
Potential military actions against these organizations
This executive order fundamentally changes the rules of engagement in America’s war on drugs, extending counterterrorism tactics into the fight against organized crime.
How Avocado Farmers Could Be Affected
Avocado farmers in Michoacán and Jalisco, two of Mexico’s largest avocado-producing states, operate in areas where cartels have significant influence. Many farmers are forced to pay protection fees—known as «derecho de piso»—to these criminal groups to continue their operations safely.
Under the new policy, these payments could be interpreted as financing terrorism, triggering sanctions and trade restrictions on products from these regions. This would effectively block U.S. imports of Mexican avocados from cartel-controlled areas.
The Economic Fallout of an Avocado Ban
If enforced, this policy could cause:
A spike in avocado prices in the U.S. due to supply shortages
Massive economic losses for Mexican farmers and exporters
Disruptions in the U.S. food industry, affecting restaurants and grocers
Mexico exports over 80% of its avocados to the U.S., generating billions in revenue. An import ban would devastate this sector, putting thousands of jobs at risk in both countries.
Political and Trade Tensions Escalate
The Mexican government has pushed back against these measures, with President Claudia Sheinbaum arguing that the U.S. should focus on tackling domestic drug demand before imposing sanctions on Mexican industries.
International trade experts warn that these policies could strain U.S.-Mexico relations, potentially sparking retaliatory trade restrictions. Mexico remains one of the largest trade partners of the U.S., and economic tensions could escalate quickly.
Could This Policy Actually Succeed?
While the legal framework exists to ban Mexican avocado imports, enforcement will be complex. Several factors could influence the policy’s outcome:
Legal Challenges – U.S. agribusiness groups may challenge trade restrictions in court.
Diplomatic Pressure – Mexico could negotiate exemptions or new trade terms.
Consumer Backlash – American retailers and fast-food chains reliant on Mexican avocados may lobby against the ban.
What’s Next? The Future of Avocado Imports
For now, avocado lovers can breathe easy—there is no immediate ban in place. However, if the U.S. fully implements counterterrorism sanctions against cartels, restrictions on agricultural products from affected regions could become a reality.
As the policy unfolds, businesses, farmers, and consumers alike must closely monitor developments that could reshape the global avocado trade.So, if you’re enjoying guacamole during the Super Bowl, savor it—it might just be the last time it’s made with avocados from Michoacán.
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