A Crucial Vote Amid Political and Social Turmoil
On Sunday, Ecuadorians head to the polls to decide whether to re-elect President Daniel Noboa or opt for change. His 14-month presidency has been marked by security crises, economic struggles, and diplomatic tensions, leaving voters divided on his performance.
Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman and politician, initially gained high approval ratings due to his strong stance on crime, but his popularity has declined in recent months. Despite this, he remains the frontrunner in most polls, with his closest competitor being Luisa González, backed by former President Rafael Correa.
Why Is Ecuador Holding Elections Again?
Ecuador’s political instability stems from the dissolution of the National Assembly in 2023. Then-President Guillermo Lasso invoked the “muerte cruzada”, a constitutional mechanism allowing the dissolution of Congress in exchange for new elections.
This move led to Noboa’s surprise victory in 2023, defeating González in a runoff election. Now, with his interim term ending in May 2025, Ecuadorians will decide whether he deserves a full four-year mandate.
Security Crisis: A Key Issue for Voters
Under Noboa’s administration, Ecuador’s crime rate reached historic highs. His militarization strategy—deploying troops to prisons and cities—initially won public support. However, its long-term impact remains unclear.
Key statistics on Ecuador’s security situation:
- Homicide rate peaked at 22 murders per day in 2023.
- Slight decrease to 19 murders per day in 2024.
- January 2025 saw a spike with 731 murders, the highest in three years.
A major scandal, the “4 of Guayaquil” case, highlighted human rights concerns within Noboa’s security policies. Four minors were detained by the military and later found murdered, raising alarms about abuse of power and lack of accountability.
Economic Woes: Recession, Blackouts, and Public Frustration
Beyond security, Ecuador’s economy has been another major challenge for Noboa. The country entered a recession in 2024, with a 1.5% GDP contraction due to:
- Severe power outages—blackouts lasted over 12 hours in some areas.
- Rising national debt, estimated at $50 billion (40% of GDP).
- Increased taxes, including a 3% VAT hike to fund security efforts.
Despite these struggles, Noboa secured a $4 billion loan from the IMF, stabilizing finances but increasing public debt. Job losses due to energy shortages further fueled discontent, making economic recovery a critical election issue.
Diplomatic Tensions: The Mexico Conflict and Political Alliances
One of Noboa’s most controversial decisions was ordering a military raid on the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest ex-Vice President Jorge Glas. This unprecedented act:
- Violated international diplomatic protocols.
- Led Mexico to cut ties with Ecuador.
- Sparked global condemnation.
While some Ecuadorians saw it as a show of strength, others feared it damaged the country’s international reputation. Additionally, Noboa’s rift with Vice President Verónica Abad, whom he exiled as ambassador to Israel, further exposed internal government conflicts.
What Do the Polls Say?
Polling data suggests that Noboa remains the favorite, but the likelihood of a runoff election is high. Here’s what experts predict:
- Noboa leads in four out of five major polls.
- González holds a strong base but struggles to attract new voters.
- A second round is expected unless a candidate secures over 50% of the vote.
With 14 other candidates in the race, alliances will play a crucial role in shaping the National Assembly and influencing the runoff election.
What’s at Stake? The Future of Ecuador
Ecuadorians are choosing more than a president—they are deciding:
How to address crime and gang violence.
The country’s economic recovery strategy.
Its diplomatic standing in Latin America.Regardless of the outcome, this election will shape Ecuador’s trajectory for the next four years. Will Noboa retain power, or will voters seek change? The answer unfolds at the ballot box.
